70 % av Polymarket-brukerne går i minus: Overskuddet er konsentrert i hendene på elitehandlere

A recent on-chain analysis of Polymarket, one of the leading prediction markets, has revealed stark inequality in profitability. According to data from analyst defioasis.eth, published on December 29, 2025, approximately 70% of over 1.7 million trading addresses on the platform have realized losses. Only 30% of addresses showed profits after closing positions.

The most striking finding is the concentration of gains: less than 0.04% of addresses (roughly a few hundred "whales" and professional traders) captured over 70% of the total realized profits, amounting to $3.7 billion. The majority of profitable traders earned less than $1,000, with 63.5% of addresses incurring small losses in the $0-$1,000 range.

These figures are based on realized PnL calculations (sales and redemptions minus purchase costs), excluding unrealized positions. This means some active traders with open positions may have potentially profitable bets that haven't settled yet.

Why Such Inequality?

Polymarket operates as a zero-sum game, where one trader's profit comes at another's expense. The analysis highlights a "winner-takes-most" environment: professional traders, algorithms, and whales with advantages in information, speed, and capital dominate. Retail users often lose due to emotional betting, lack of discipline, or competition with bots.

This mirrors traditional markets, where most retail investors lose money while a small elite earns millions. In 2025, Polymarket processed over $9 billion in trading volume, but profits remain highly concentrated.

Experts note that these insights serve as a warning for newcomers: prediction markets demand high skill and are not an easy way to earn money. Despite this, the platform continues to grow, attracting hundreds of thousands of active users monthly.